In the Contingency view, you can specify the default contingency settings and fractile set used to analyze simulation results.
The 窶廚alculate contingency w.r.t.窶 popup menu is used to control the default contingency reference, i.e., which statistic contingencies will be calculated with respect to. DynRisk offers three possible reference statistics:
窶｢ Base value
窶｢ Mean value
窶｢ 50/50-value
The 窶廝ase value窶 is the value of the total cost if all uncertainty is neglected. The 窶廴ean value窶 is obtained by calculating the mean of all the simulation values. The 窶50/50-value窶 is the same as the median of the simulation values.
The 窶廚alculate contingency as窶 popup menu is used to control the default contingency format. DynRisk offers three alternatives:
窶｢ %
窶｢ % difference
窶｢ Difference
If X denotes the contingency reference statistic, and Y is the difference between a contingency level statistics and X, then the different options can be explained as follows:
If you choose the 窶%窶 option the contingencies will be calculated as:
Contingency = 100 (X+Y)/X
If you choose the 窶% difference窶 option the contingencies will be calculated as:
Contingency = 100 Y/X
If you choose the 窶廛ifference窶 option the contingencies will be calculated as:
Contingency = Y
The 窶廚ontingency levels窶 popup menu is used to control the default levels of contingency DynRisk will display. You can choose between two different types of levels:
窶｢ Fractiles
窶｢ Mean ﾂｱst.dev
If you choose the 窶廡ractiles窶 option, the contingency levels will be calculated according to the current fractile set. Thus, if e.g., this fractile set is 窶10%, 50%, 90%窶, then contingency levels will be calculated as the 10%-, 50%-, and 90%-fractiles of the total cost 窶彭ata node窶.
If you choose the 窶廴ean ﾂｱst.dev窶 option, the three contingency levels will be (窶廴ean窶 - 窶徭t.dev窶), 窶廴ean窶, and (窶廴ean窶 + 窶徭t.dev窶). Here 窶廴ean窶 is the mean of the simulated values, and 窶徭t.dev窶 is the standard deviation of the simulated values.
The 窶廡ractiles窶 popup menu is used to select a default fractile set.
A fractile set consists of three fractiles, e.g., 5%, 50% and 95%, and is used in tables, plot legends, contingency calculations etc.
Note that you can always change the contingency settings used in a particular data file by using the 窶廚ontingency窶ｦ窶 command in the 窶彜et窶 submenu of the 窶廨allery窶 menu. Similarly, you can change the fractile set by using the 窶廡ractiles窶ｦ窶 command in the 窶彜et窶 submenu of the 窶廨allery窶 menu.
